2015 Academy Awards Preview (or The Opinion of One Guy Who Has Seen Most of the Movies Nominated) Part Three

For part three of my look at the Academy Awards, I am looking the at the races for Best Actor and Actress. One of these races has become very predictable while the other one seemed predictable for awhile but has now become a two person race.

It's funny with both of these categories you kinda get a microcosm of how the Oscars categories go most years. It's either a fun, unpredictable race that could go either way or it becomes a race where the winner is predictable and we get to watch as they act super surprise that they won the award.

But both the races this year feature actors that audiences have loved and respected over the years. You get the sense from both of these categories that whoever wins their respective awards that it is going to be long overdue for them.

So with that in mind, let's look at the categories:

BEST ACTRESS

Marion Cotillard - Two Days, One Night

Felicity Jones - The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore - Still Alice 

Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl 

Reese Witherspoon - Wild 

For awhile, this category looked like it could be one of the most unpredictable ones to pick in a long while. Then Julianne Moore started winning every major acting award this season and slowly it has started to feel like it is Moore's to lose. To be honest, it would not be a bad thing at all. Moore is a very respected actor. The list of classic film's she has been in is endless. She also has been nominated four times and has not won yet. This very much is in her favor. Marion Cotillard's nomination was a nice surprise for her work in Two Days, One Night but she is the film's only nomination. Felicity Jones really did great work in The Theory of Everything. It is the kind of performance that announces that someone has arrived on the scene. But her co-star Eddie Redmayne is getting most of the awards  attention, so she will have to settle for the nomination. Early in the year, it seemed like Rosamund Pike would be a contender for her stellar work in Gone Girl. But she is the film's only nomination and as noted before, some members of the academy really hated the movie. Reese Witherspoon on the other hand gave her best performance in years in Wild. Any other year, she would win this easily. It is just a subtle, brilliant performance. But two things stop her. One, the movie has not really caught on with the public in the way a lot of people thought it would. And she has won an Oscar before in 2005 for Walk the Line. Take that into account, and becomes clear that Julianne Moore is going to be walking up to the podium for her first Oscar trophy.

Should Win and Will Win: 

BEST ACTOR

Steve Carell - Foxcatcher

Bradley Cooper - American Sniper 

Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game 

Michael Keaton - Birdman (or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything 

This is the fun category of the night. Everyone in this category is very much liked by audiences and critics alike. With that being said, I am going to admit to a personal preference here: I want Michael Keaton to win this. I have been a big fan of Keaton's for years. Not just Batman, but with his work in Beetlejuice, Clean and Sober, Pacific Heights, Night Shift, The Nice Guys, etc. He has been an actor who for years as been able to go between comedy and drama very easily. That is not an easy thing to do at all and to see him get noticed finally is a great thing. Is it enough to win though? Well the competition is stiff. Bradley Cooper has the advantage of being in the most popular film in the category, American Sniper. His portrayal of military sniper Chris Kyle is a heartfelt and emotional performance. It is also impressive that this is Cooper's third year in a row of getting an Oscar nomination. But for as huge as the film as been, so has been the controversy over the facts and the politics of the film. Academy voters will probably be too scared of giving Cooper an Oscar here. Steve Carell was also impressive in Foxcatcher as John Du Pont. But the character is very unlikable and considering who Carell is up against in this category, that hurts. Benedict Cumberbatch is the superstar of this category for sure. Ladies love him and he has been in several popular movies and television shows over the past couple of years. His work in The Imitation Game as the gay mathematician Alan Turning is usually the type of part that wins Oscars easily. But for some reason, the film has not caught on in a way that one would think that it would. And then there is Eddie Redmayne. The performance he gives in The Theory of Everything is an extraordinarily physical one. He really makes you feel the effects that ALS has on Professor Stephen Hawking. It is not cheesy in the slightest bit. Redmayne has a good chance to win, but there is also a feeling that his performance is the type that we have seen from past winners before. Keaton has the benefit of being in a movie that lived or died on his performance. Birdman was a unique film in that it went from comedy to drama and back in the blink of an eye. Keaton handled all of this with ease at times. Because he has the harder part to play, Keaton will win Best Actor. Let's just hope we can get a Beettlejuice sequel because of this now! 

Should Win and Will Win: 

That is it for the post. Tomorrow, I will have a look at Best Director and then Friday, a look at the Best Picture race. 

- Hash 

A Quick Opinion of the 2014 Oscar Nominations.

2013 was a kick ass year in film. I can't think of a better late end of year run series of films than the ones we just had. It is now that time of year to kick off Oscar season.

The nominations were announced Thursday morning. I want to take a look at some of the big categories and share some quick thoughts on who has the best chance of going home with an Oscar and who got robbed of a nomination.

So let's go ahead and take a look:

BEST PICTURE

AMERICAN HUSTLE 

CAPTAIN PHILLIPS

DALLAS BUYERS CLUB

GRAVITY 

HER

NEBRASKA

PHILOMENA

12 YEARS A SLAVE

THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

Captain Phillips sadly lost it's chance of winning when both Tom Hanks and Paul Greengrass did not get nominated in either of their respective categories. Dallas Buyers Club, Nebraska, and Philomena are probably going to get most of it's awards in the acting categories, while Her will have a better chance of getting Best Screenplay.  The Wolf of Wall Street is in the same position Django Unchained was in last year. It is a cool and hip film to nominate for best picture but one that the older members of the branch don't have the stomach to vote for the win. So that leaves American Hustle, Gravity, and American Hustle. Gravity, my personal favorite film of the year, is going to sweep the technical categories. But the lack of a Best Original Screenplay nomination I think is a sign that it won't win here. American Hustle is a fun film. Audiences and critics both love it. If it were any other year, I would pick it to win. But 12 Years a Slave is one of those movies that comes along every once in awhile that is so powerful that I think the members of the academy will probably go ahead and pick it. It doesn't pull any punches and the way Steve McQueen guided the movie is an achievement in of itself. I expect the academy to honor it with it's highest award.

BEST ACTOR

CHRISTIAN BALE - AMERICAN HUSTLE

BRUCE DERN - NEBRASKA

LEONARDO DiCAPRIO  - THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

CHIWETEL EJIOFOR - 12 YEARS A SLAVE

MATTHEW McCONAUGHEY - DALLAS BUYERS CLUB

Tom Hanks not getting nominated here is a stunner. Walking out of Captain Phillips, I thought he was a shoo-in for a acting nod. But DiCaprio and Bale's films became really popular as of late and Hanks had the misfortune of having his movie open all the way back in October. Bruce Dern gives the performance of his career in Nebraska and it is really good to see him nominated here. But I think it is a two man race here between Ejiofor and McConaughey. Ejiofor would win it if I was picking the winner. 12 Years a Slave is very much dependent on us caring for the lead character and Ejiofor more than succeeds in making us see the struggles that his Soloman Northup went through. McConaughey though is having a Tom Hanks-like comeback. To think of where he was a few years ago being stuck in Kate Hudson films to now working on the next Christopher Nolan film is truly remarkable. He too gave one of the best performances of the year. And considering that he lost an insane amount of weight in order to play the part, it pretty much seems to be a given that he will win. Let's just hope he can fit in a Dazed and Confused quote in his acceptance speech somewhere.

BEST ACTRESS

AMY ADAMS - AMERICAN HUSTLE

CATE BLANCHETT - BLUE JASMINE

SANDRA BULLOCK - GRAVITY

JUDI DENCH - PHILOMENA

MERYL STREEP - AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY

I said this to people in August when I saw the film and I am going to say it again: Cate Blanchett is going to win Best Actress. Woody Allen wrote her an excellent character to play in Jeanette "Jasmine" Francis. Blanchett handled the part like a pro and she should be awarded here. Amy Adams could win for American Hustle since she is on the hot streak she continues to be on. Bullock was also good in Gravity but I think the acting branch will probably see that film as more a technical film than an acting one. Judi Dench is well respected but she has not won any awards to suggest a win here. As for Miss Streep, I think she got this nomination by the skin of her teeth. Osage County has not been a hit with critics and reviews from audiences have been mixed. In fact I could have sworn I heard groans in the press room when the academy announced her name. Meryl has three trophies already, time for Cate to get one of her own. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

BARKHAD ABDI - CAPTAIN PHILLIPS

BRADLEY COOPER - AMERICAN HUSTLE

MICHAEL FASSBENDER - 12 YEARS A SLAVE

JONAH HILL - THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

JARED LETO - DALLAS BUYERS CLUB

It is awesome to see Barkhad Abdi get nominated for Captain Phillips. To go toe to toe with Tom Hanks and look like a seasoned pro is a major accomplishment for the first time actor. But he hasn't won any acting awards yet, so the nomination may end up being his award. Bradley Cooper did well in American Hustle but his hair probably is getting more press than his acting did in the film. Jonah Hill continues to impress as a dramatic actor but I just don't see the academy giving him the trophy. Michael Fassbender continues to be one of the best actors around these days. His character was evil and the interactions he had with Ejiofor were some of the best scenes in 12 Years a Slave. But I think Jared Leto is going home with the award. Leto has over the last decade played mostly psychopaths and characters with a dark side. But he showed a surprising amount of heart in Dallas Buyers Club. Him and McConaughey were great together and Leto's transgender character I thought really gave the film a good dose of humor and heart amongst all the talk of AIDS and medical procedures. If he wins, I expect many a mention of his role on the brilliant TV show My So-Called Life to be mentioned on Twitter.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

SALLY HAWKINS - BLUE JASMINE

JENNIFER LAWRENCE - AMERICAN HUSTLE

LUPITA NYONG'O - 12 YEARS A SLAVE

JULIA ROBERTS - AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY

JUNE SQUIBB - NEBRASKA

Great surprise seeing Sally Hawkins getting a nod for Blue Jasmine. She really provided a great counter point to the madness of Blanchett in the film. But she has not been nominated for anything else so far so I don't think she gets the win here. Unlike Streep, Julia Roberts earned her acting nomination for Osage County. But like Streep, the lack of buzz for the film hurt her chances. June Squibb was a hoot to watch in Nebraska. Voters though I think will probably think of the film more for Bruce Dern's role that for Squibb's. Jennifer Lawrence has kicked ass and taken names in 2013. She won Best Actress for Silver Linings Playbook, had a mega hit with Catching Fire, and continued her great acting work in American Hustle. But to be honest, I don't think her work in Hustle is one of her best. Sure she is great and all and I would not be shocked in the least if she wins again. But Lupita Nyong'o was amazing in 12 Years a Slave. She could have overacted or gone over the top with her role but she didn't. It made her character "Patsey" all the more better for it. The academy, in this case, I think will stray from the popular choice of Lawrence and give it to the right choice, which would be Nyong'o.

BEST DIRECTOR

DAVID O'RUSSELL - AMERICAN HUSTLE

 ALFONSO CURON - GRAVITY

ALEXANDER PAYNE - NEBRASKA

STEVE MCQUEEN - 12 YEARS A SLAVE

MARTIN SCORSESE - THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

This category has become a two man race. Martin Scorsese is a great director and will always be one, but The Wolf of Wall Street has just as many haters as it does admirers, so he will not get the win here.  Alexander Payne continues to make great small dramas. Nebraska is a great film but one that will get more support in the acting category than the directing branch, so no luck for Payne here. This is the third time in a row that David O'Russell has been nominated for best director. Any other year I imagine a groundswell of support for O'Russell getting the directing nod, but for the same reasons that Payne has with Nebraska, I think people are probably going to see Hustle as more an acting achievement than a directing one. So that leaves, Steve McQueen and Alfonso Curon. McQueen winning this would not be a surprise at all. He took a story that he could have dumb down and shied away from the harsher more violent parts of Soloman Northup's story but he didn't. Because of this, he made an amazing film and got great performances out of everyone in the cast. But Alfonso Curon did something even more impressive. In a day and age where CGI and special effects have made movies less personal, Curon made a film that was both a character driven story and a special effects treat. Gravity is a film that did not let the special effects take over the story. You felt like you were in space. You were into Sandra Bullock and George Clooney's struggle in trying to not float away into the dead of space. This is an excellent acheivement over all and while McQueen would not be a bad choice for winner in the category, I expect Curon to win here.

Before I go, I wanna give a quick shout out to a fellow friend and blog writer. If you wanna read another take on the Academy Awards, go to kentuckygeekgirl.com and get your fix there. She is also a great writer and has a cool logo to boot!