2015 Academy Awards Preview (or The Opinion of One Guy Who Has Seen Most of the Movies Nominated) Part Two

For part two of my Academy Award predictions, I am going to be looking at the Supporting Actor and Actress categories. Two categories that have the reputation for being the weakest fields in the Oscar race, Albeit for different reasons.

I think this is a misconception in some ways. True it is not a super strong year for supporting performances. But that doesn't mean that we didn't get any great performances. I can think of about three actors nominated throughout both of these categories that truly deserve to be remembered long after the awards season is over. Also most of these performances came from actors who the audience has always relied on to give us great performances over the years, no matter the quality of the film.

So without further ado, here is a look at the nominees for Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress:

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Robert Duvall - The Judge

 Ethan Hawke - Boyhood

Edward Norton - Birdman (or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons - Whiplash 

Of any category of the night, this one is a shoo-in for J.K. Simmons. Simmons is just that good in Whiplash. Simmons is very much unlikeable in the film, but he makes you feel the passion for music that his music teacher character Terrence Fletcher has. The character is very much an asshole, no doubt. But you see a beating heart behind it all and that is no easy feat to pull off for Simmons at all. As for the other nominees, each one of them can enjoy the night and the nomination. If anyone has any hope to upset Simmons it might be Mark Ruffalo in Foxcatcher. As Dave Schultz, the famed former Olympic wrestler who meets a very tragic end, Ruffalo brought a level head and heart to the film that helped balance out the mental issues in the story between Steve Carell and Channing Tatum. Edward Norton is great in Birdman and it was great to see him back in a good film like that since he has not done much in the last few years. But you get the sense that he really is kinda playing a version of his reputation in the movie and not much more. Same for Ethan Hawke in Boyhood. Hawke has had a great couple of years of success but the movie is more memorable for other aspects than his performance. And Robert Duvall is an American Treasure of acting and gives an impressive performance in The Judge. Unfortunate for Duvall though, reviews on the film were really mixed and he is film's only nomination. So if Simmons loses this category, expect a huge gasp in the audience as well as some Fletcher like cursing from a few people as well. 

Should Win and Will Win: 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Patricia Arquette - Boyhood

Lauren Dern - Wild

Keira Knightley - The Imitation Game

Emma Stone - Birdman (or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

Meryl Streep - Into The Woods

First off, Meryl Streep has no business being nominated. She is fine in Into The Woods, but if anyone from that movie was going to be nominated, it should have been Emily Blunt. So with Streep thankfully not winning, this race becomes more interesting. It was a great surprise seeing Lauren Dern nominated for her heartfelt work in Wild. But she has not really been nominated or won any other acting race so a win here is unlikely.  Keira Knightley is great as usual in The Imitation Game but it is the kind of performance we have seen from her before. Emma Stone I think gives the best performance in this category for Birdman. She never really overacted too much and I thought she stood toe to toe quite well with Michael Keaton in that film. But in the end, I think Patricia Arquette takes home the trophy for her work in Boyhood. She gives maybe the most heartfelt performance in the film and the scene at the end where her character's son gets ready to go to college is a heart breaker for any mother who has watched their kid go to school. A lot of older women voting in this category might relate to that. So while it would be good to see Stone win here, Arquette winning would be just as deserved.

Should Win: Emma Stone

Will Win: 

That is it for this post. Next time we will look at the Best Actor and Best Actress races. Best Actress is up in the air for any number of the women in that category. Best Actor seems to be going for Michael Keaton but is an upset inevitable in that race? 

- Hash

2015 Academy Awards Preview (or The Opinion of One Guy Who Has Seen Most of the Movies Nominated) Part One

Last week, The Academy Award Nominations were announced and did the controversy fly or what? It has been a long time since we have seen this much grumbling over what was not nominated. In past years, you usually would see chatter like that die down after a week or so, but this year, the snub of films like Selma and The Lego Movie might end up having a real impact on the races this year.

This year's collection of films is very good even with all the grumbling over what was or was not nominated. A lot of films that were deemed sure things early on (Gone Girl, Inherent Vice,) didn't even get a best picture nomination. It seems the Academy this year went for films that favored strong storytelling WITH strong acting. All of the best picture nominees this year seemed to have performances that many people were talking about afterwards. In the case of some movies, like The Imitation Game, the performances is what got people to the movies in the first place.

Whatever turns out of all the controversy, this year's slate of films at least promises to at least give us a few surprises or so. I now give you my take on all the categories in the coming days and who wins the Oscar in each category this year. This will be a series and I will conclude it closer to the actual awards show.


First up, the screenplay races:

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY


American Sniper - Jason Hall 

The Imitation Game - Graham Moore

Inherent Vice - Paul Thomas Anderson

The Theory of Everything - Anthony McCarten 

Whiplash - Damien Chazelle

We start with one of the toughest categories of the night. There really is no clear favorite right out of the gate. Most of these movies come with controversy and baggage of some sort. Let's start with Inherent Vice from the great Paul Thomas Anderson. He probably was the biggest surprise nominee in this category. Popular opinion says that he took the spot that Gillian Flynn was going to have for adapting her own book Gone Girl. Anderson is a very well respected filmmaker but he doesn't have much of a chance of wining this category. The film only went up for one other award (Best Costume) and the few people who saw the film are still trying to figure out what the heck the film was about. American Sniper is a mega hit at the theaters right now. Audiences love the film but other people hate it with a passion it seems. Whether it has to do with how much of the story is fabricated or whether the film is really some sort or right wing propaganda machine, you just don't get the sense that the film hasn't got much momentum here for a win. As for both The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything, both are very highly regarded British films. But both films seem to be highly regarded for other areas but the writing. Both films have great lead performances and both are very technically sound. But Theory has been accused by some for being inert and uninvolved in spots of the story while Imitation has had some questions over whether the film glossed over certain facts of it's real life story. That leaves Whiplash. It's one of the most well received critical hits of the year and the fact that it comes from a short film is a surprise for most people. Since that film's chances of winning best picture do seem slim at best, this and Best Supporting Actor might be where the film gets it's due. 

Should Win and Will Win: 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) - 

Alejandro González Iñárritu,  Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. and Armando Bo

 Boyhood - Richard Linklater

Foxcatcher - E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman 

The Grand Budapest Hotel - Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness

Nightcrawler - Dan Gilroy

Another tough category to pick. All of these films have been very well received by audiences and critics. Two films on this list though have tough chances of winning. Foxcatcher has been nominated in other categories but the lack of a best picture nomination really sinks it's chances here. Same goes for Nightcrawler. It's chances were probably damaged the moment Jake Gyllenhaal failed to get a Best Actor nomination. Boyhood may end up winning Best Picture and a few other awards during the evening. But considering that many people are talking about the movie's directing and how good the acting is and how there never really was much of a set script over the years, one is not getting a strong sense of a win here. So that leaves Birdman and Grand Budapest and this is where it gets hard. Both films are inventive and both show off wonderful storytelling. What makes the difference? In the case of Birdman, the discussion has been on Michael Keaton. Keaton is truly the anchor of the film and the film would really have been lost without him. However, ask anyone why Grand Budapest worked and the answer you would get the most is Wes Anderson. He has been very well regarded filmmaker for years by both audiences and critics. For reasons unknown, the Academy has not given him much in the way of nominations to Anderson over the years. This is the year I think he finally gets some recognition and this is the category where he finally wins an Oscar. While it would not be a shock to see Birdman win, it looks to be a Grand night for Wes Anderson at last. 

Should Win and Will Win: 

That is it for this post. Next time, we will look at the Best Supporting Actor and Actress races. Both of these races look like easy wins for actors in both categories. Or are they? We will look at that next time.

- Hash