2016 Best Educated Guesses on the Academy Award Nominations: Part Five

And now we come to the end. 

Best Picture. Oddly enough, this has not been an easy category to pick this year. Usually you get a sense of a clear front runner like two months out. But this year, it seems like we only really got a sense of what film was going to win this award like three weeks before the ceremony. 

At the very least, it has made the awards season a lot more interesting. But with all that in mind, let's look at the race for Best Picture and who is going to win. 

BEST PICTURE

The Big Short 

Bridge of Spies 

Brooklyn 

Mad Max: Fury Road 

The Martian 

The Revenant 

Room

Spotlight 

To look at this lot of Best Picture nominees, at least the Academy decided to mix it up this year. Granted it would have been nice if Straight Outta Compton could have been nominated. It probably would have saved the Academy all the headache that #Oscarssowhite is bringing down upon them now. But alas that is an issue for another blog post. The film's that we have nominated now have one thing in common in that they are are all audience friendly this year. If you look at the audience score for each of the films, audience actually gave them all really good reviews. 

The most popular of the bunch up here would be The Martian. It kinda has fit itself into the spot that Gravity was in a few years ago. Like that Sandra Bullock film, Martian is a film that is wholly approved by most everyone. Critics, audiences, people in the industry. It is the type of studio film that you love to see come down the pipeline about once every year. Any other year, I think it would be the film to beat. But for some reason, I don't see it winning on this night. Whether it is the fact that the film came out all the way back in October or the fact that Ridley Scott missed out on a nomination for Best Director, The Martian just has the look here in this category of something that people have already moved on from and that is just sad for this film. 

Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, and Room, all have the same problem. They are great films with great performances, but nothing about them screams "best film of the year." On paper, Bridge of Spies should be one of the front runners. It is one of Spielberg's best films and it got great notices across the board from audiences and critics. But Spielberg has been so successful for so long, that he probably is always going to be judged by his past work. Whether it is fair or not is a good question to ask, but Spies will just have to settle for the nomination. Same goes for Brooklyn and Room. The two real independent films in this category. They are both great films but they really are more noted for the performances of their female leads. The nominations alone are probably a victory for both of those films. 

The real wild child in this race however is Mad Max: Fury Road. My favorite film of the year. In fact, if it were to win Best Picture, I don't think you would find that many people upset about it. It is an imaginative film. It is not boring. The action scenes are great. The acting was good. But the film I am sure scares off the older branch of the Academy. It probably is a little too B-movie like for the members to accept as super high art. Sure they will nominate it just to show they are hip and with the times. But give Mad Max Best Picture? Not a chance in hell sadly. 

Oddly enough, that is the same problem I think The Big Short is having as well. The people who have seen the film and it's biting commentary on the financial collapse of 2008, love the film. Adam McKay is a very well respected comedy writer and director in the industry and the film is one of the best reviewed of the year. But you wonder if it is just a bit too hip for the Academy to pick as Best Picture. I mean, the film doesn't exactly end on a inspirational note. The film will probably win Best Adapted Screenplay for sure. I think the Academy members will see that and just move on with the other films. 

So that leaves The Revenant and Spotlight. If it came down to these two films, to me I would go Spotlight. A great story, amazing acting, a story that is still relevant. This is usually the type of film that the Academy cannot wait to give Best Picture too. Sure it has not been a monster Box Office success, but has never stopped a film from winning Best Picture before. Think back to 2009, when The Hurt Locker beat all time Box Office champ Avatar for Best Picture. Spotlight on paper would seem to be the easy choice for Best Picture. But it will not win. 

Why? Because the campaign for The Revenant by it's producers and it's star Leonardo DiCaprio has been very effective so far. They have been all over the press circuit talking about how hard it was making the movie in the harsh winter conditions they were in. How hard it was for DiCaprio as he had to grow a beard and how he contracted the flu three times during the shoot. How they had to rush the movie to get it finished on time. You start to sense in the last couple of weeks, with the awards that the movie is starting to rack up, that the Academy is absolutely in love with this narrative. Plus Alejandro G. Innaritu is a big hit with the Academy at the moment. Birdman was the best picture winner last year. Innaritu directed that film as well. Once the Academy really loves you, they will not stop with the nominations and the trophies that come your way. For an example, look at Meryl Streep. 

Don't get me wrong, The Revenant is a great film. It is nice to see an adventure film that has zero superheroes in it connect with the public. But if you combine the narrative of the hardships of making the film with the narrative that DiCaprio is "due" for his Oscar moment, The Revenant is going to be your Best Picture winner of 2016. 

Maybe DiCaprio eating raw bison liver was worth it for him after all. 

WINNER:

-Hash

2016 Best Educated Guesses on the Academy Award Nominations: Part Four

Best Actor and Best Actress.

One of these races is all but locked up. The other one does seemingly look like a done deal as well but there is a chance for a surprise there as well.

Both of these races if anything else speak to how big momentum and campaigning to win your respective award is to the Oscars these days.

So with out further ado, let's look at the races for Best Actress and Best Actor.

BEST ACTRESS


CATE BLANCHETT - CAROL

BRIE LARSON - ROOM

JENNIFER LAWRENCE - JOY 

CHARLOTTE RAMPLING - 45 YEARS

SAOIRSE RONAN - BROOKLYN

The remarkable thing that stands out in this category right of the bat is that the heavyweights in the category really don't have that much of a chance of winning. Cate Blanchett is one of those great actresses who is always up for a nomination but her inclusion here has puzzled many people. Her character in Carol is seen by many as more of a supporting character whereas her co-star Rooney Mara is actually the main character of the story. So I don't see Blanchett going home with the trophy here. 

Same thing goes for Jennifer Lawerence. Working with her favorite director, David O'Russell, Joy had the makings early on of looking like a possible win for Lawrence. But reaction to the film was mixed and she's also the film's only nomination here. Charlotte Rampling has been an industry veteran for over 15 years. Her first part was actually as a dancer in A Hard Day's Night. Respected for many years, Rampling stood a chance early on to come into this race and maybe pick up a sentimental win. But Rampling in the last month screwed up big time. When she was asked about her thoughts on the possibility of actors boycotting the awards show due to lack of diversity, Rampling replied that the whole idea of a boycott was actually "racist to white people." This is a incredibly stupid thing of her or anyone to say. So there is zero chance of her winning here. 

Saoirse Ronan has been a very well respected young actress in the industry for the last decade or so. Ronan has to carry Brooklyn for pretty much the entire film and she succeeds very well. Since most of the film is told through her character's experiences coming to America from Ireland, Ronan's performance is really extraordinary. But the feeling here is that this is Brie Larson's category for lose. Her performance in Room is extraordinary. The early scenes in the shack with her young son where she is just desperately trying to keep her kid happy while also trying to keep herself mentally sane is just heartbreaking to watch. It is the kind of part that the Academy usually loves to reward and this Sunday, Larson should be going home with her first Oscar.

WINNER:

BEST ACTOR

Bryan Cranston - Trumbo 

Matt Damon - The Martian 

Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant 

Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs 

Eddie Redmayne - The Danish Girl 

Folks, this is usually the part where I go and write a long thoughtful analysis about who I think is going to win Best Actor and the wonderful ways they earned their way to the trophy. But let's be honest here, Leonardo DiCaprio is going to win this award no matter what any of us thinks. 

It's over. DiCaprio has absolutely dominated the conversation this awards season. He has played the "I'm due" card very well. I mean, at least The Revenant is a great film to win for. But I just feel bad for Michael Fassbender and Matt Damon. Both of these guys gave career highlight performances this year and basically both of them have been reduced to a footnote in this race. 

For comparison, DiCaprio is kinda riding the same train that Jack Nicholson rode when he won Best Actor in 1976 for One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest. It was also at the time Nicholson's fifth nomination after being nominated for Easy Rider, Five Easy Pieces, The Last Detail, and Chinatown. Many people felt Jack was "due" thus he finally won it for Cuckoo's Nest. DiCaprio is getting that same attention now since he has been a great actor and has been someone who knows how to pick great projects. 

So this Sunday, expect the Academy to give DiCaprio the award. It's just academic at this point. 

WINNER:

- Hash 

2016 Best Educated Guesses on the Academy Award Nominations: Part Two

This year's group of screenplay nominees represent the most diversity of any of the categories that the Academy has to offer us this year. And in a year where diversity is sorely lacking in all the major nominees, that makes both of these screenplay categories interesting to watch.

Original Screenplay I think has some very fascinating nominations. Three of the films in that category are not nominated for Best Picture. Adapted Screenplay on the other hand is a category where four of the five nominees are listed for Best Picture.

Who will win in their respective categories? Let's take a look.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Bridge of Spies-
    Matt Charman, Joel Coen, and Ethan Coen

 Ex Machina- 
Alex Garland

Inside Out- 
Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, and Ronnie Del Carmen

Spotlight-
Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer 

Straight Outta Compton- 
Johnathan Herman, Andrea Berloff, S. Leigh Savidge, Alan Wenkus

As I mentioned earlier, three of the films are not nominated for Best Picture, so this makes this category very interesting to pick. This first nominee that grabs your attention right away is Straight Outta Compton. It is the film that many, including me, have thought should have been nominated for Best Picture. The temptation here would be to give it a Oscar as a sort of protest to the Academy, kinda like last year when the equally snubbed Selma did not go up for many awards like many people thought it should have. Selma eventually went on to win Best Song. But Compton is not nominated for any other award and all of the writer's on the film are white. So any kind of protest that the award would generate would be kinda moot. Bridge of Spies is a very well received film and it is co-written by Academy favorites Joel and Ethan Coen. But the film feels more like a Spielberg endeavor than it does a Coen Brothers one so I don't see a win here. I also don't see a win for either Ex Machina or Inside Out, which is a shame because they are probably the most well liked films on this list. That leaves Spotlight. The film has been praised for it's accuracy and for how the filmmakers were able to tell a gripping story out of a very sensitive subject. Usually that is the recipe for success and thus I see Spotlight getting a well deserved win here. 

Winner:

Spotlight






BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Big Short- 
Adam McKay and Charles Randolph from "The Big Short" by Michael Lewis

Brooklyn-
Nick Hornby from "Brooklyn" by Colm Toibin 

Carol-
Phyllis Nagy from "The Price of Salt" by Patricia Highsmith

The Martian-
Drew Goddard from "The Martian" by Andy Weir

Room-
Emma Donoghue from her novel "Room"

Another strong category. All of the film's nominated here are all very well liked film's by the critics and audiences. However for Carol, the moment the film failed to go up for Best Picture, it lost any chance it had of winning here. Brooklyn is a very well regarded film but it is more well regarded in other areas of the film than the writing. Specifically, Saoirse Ronan for her acting and the films 1950's period production design. The Martian has the same issue going for it as well. Drew Goddard is one of the best writers in Hollywood right now for his work on Cloverfield and The Cabin in the Woods, but the film has been looked at for more of Ridley Scott's directing than for anything else. Room on the other hand has a couple of things going in it's favor. It was adapted by the books author, Emma Donoghue. She has been praised by critics and by people who have read the book for keeping a lot of the hard to stomach moments intact. But the best film of the bunch, The Big Short, should and will win this category. The book is incredibly dense with financial information and with the terminology of the stock market. But Adam McKay and Charles Randolph do a great job with never letting the audience get confused and with telling a entertaining story of the individuals who saw the stock market collapse of 2008 coming. For that, The Big Short wins big in this category. 

Winner:

The Big Short

Coming this Friday, I will look at the Best Director race. One of the more unpredicatble races of the night. Until then...

- Hash

2015 Academy Awards Preview (or The Opinion of One Guy Who Has Seen Most of the Movies Nominated) Part One

Last week, The Academy Award Nominations were announced and did the controversy fly or what? It has been a long time since we have seen this much grumbling over what was not nominated. In past years, you usually would see chatter like that die down after a week or so, but this year, the snub of films like Selma and The Lego Movie might end up having a real impact on the races this year.

This year's collection of films is very good even with all the grumbling over what was or was not nominated. A lot of films that were deemed sure things early on (Gone Girl, Inherent Vice,) didn't even get a best picture nomination. It seems the Academy this year went for films that favored strong storytelling WITH strong acting. All of the best picture nominees this year seemed to have performances that many people were talking about afterwards. In the case of some movies, like The Imitation Game, the performances is what got people to the movies in the first place.

Whatever turns out of all the controversy, this year's slate of films at least promises to at least give us a few surprises or so. I now give you my take on all the categories in the coming days and who wins the Oscar in each category this year. This will be a series and I will conclude it closer to the actual awards show.


First up, the screenplay races:

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY


American Sniper - Jason Hall 

The Imitation Game - Graham Moore

Inherent Vice - Paul Thomas Anderson

The Theory of Everything - Anthony McCarten 

Whiplash - Damien Chazelle

We start with one of the toughest categories of the night. There really is no clear favorite right out of the gate. Most of these movies come with controversy and baggage of some sort. Let's start with Inherent Vice from the great Paul Thomas Anderson. He probably was the biggest surprise nominee in this category. Popular opinion says that he took the spot that Gillian Flynn was going to have for adapting her own book Gone Girl. Anderson is a very well respected filmmaker but he doesn't have much of a chance of wining this category. The film only went up for one other award (Best Costume) and the few people who saw the film are still trying to figure out what the heck the film was about. American Sniper is a mega hit at the theaters right now. Audiences love the film but other people hate it with a passion it seems. Whether it has to do with how much of the story is fabricated or whether the film is really some sort or right wing propaganda machine, you just don't get the sense that the film hasn't got much momentum here for a win. As for both The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything, both are very highly regarded British films. But both films seem to be highly regarded for other areas but the writing. Both films have great lead performances and both are very technically sound. But Theory has been accused by some for being inert and uninvolved in spots of the story while Imitation has had some questions over whether the film glossed over certain facts of it's real life story. That leaves Whiplash. It's one of the most well received critical hits of the year and the fact that it comes from a short film is a surprise for most people. Since that film's chances of winning best picture do seem slim at best, this and Best Supporting Actor might be where the film gets it's due. 

Should Win and Will Win: 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) - 

Alejandro González Iñárritu,  Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. and Armando Bo

 Boyhood - Richard Linklater

Foxcatcher - E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman 

The Grand Budapest Hotel - Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness

Nightcrawler - Dan Gilroy

Another tough category to pick. All of these films have been very well received by audiences and critics. Two films on this list though have tough chances of winning. Foxcatcher has been nominated in other categories but the lack of a best picture nomination really sinks it's chances here. Same goes for Nightcrawler. It's chances were probably damaged the moment Jake Gyllenhaal failed to get a Best Actor nomination. Boyhood may end up winning Best Picture and a few other awards during the evening. But considering that many people are talking about the movie's directing and how good the acting is and how there never really was much of a set script over the years, one is not getting a strong sense of a win here. So that leaves Birdman and Grand Budapest and this is where it gets hard. Both films are inventive and both show off wonderful storytelling. What makes the difference? In the case of Birdman, the discussion has been on Michael Keaton. Keaton is truly the anchor of the film and the film would really have been lost without him. However, ask anyone why Grand Budapest worked and the answer you would get the most is Wes Anderson. He has been very well regarded filmmaker for years by both audiences and critics. For reasons unknown, the Academy has not given him much in the way of nominations to Anderson over the years. This is the year I think he finally gets some recognition and this is the category where he finally wins an Oscar. While it would not be a shock to see Birdman win, it looks to be a Grand night for Wes Anderson at last. 

Should Win and Will Win: 

That is it for this post. Next time, we will look at the Best Supporting Actor and Actress races. Both of these races look like easy wins for actors in both categories. Or are they? We will look at that next time.

- Hash 

A Quick Opinion of the 2014 Oscar Nominations.

2013 was a kick ass year in film. I can't think of a better late end of year run series of films than the ones we just had. It is now that time of year to kick off Oscar season.

The nominations were announced Thursday morning. I want to take a look at some of the big categories and share some quick thoughts on who has the best chance of going home with an Oscar and who got robbed of a nomination.

So let's go ahead and take a look:

BEST PICTURE

AMERICAN HUSTLE 

CAPTAIN PHILLIPS

DALLAS BUYERS CLUB

GRAVITY 

HER

NEBRASKA

PHILOMENA

12 YEARS A SLAVE

THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

Captain Phillips sadly lost it's chance of winning when both Tom Hanks and Paul Greengrass did not get nominated in either of their respective categories. Dallas Buyers Club, Nebraska, and Philomena are probably going to get most of it's awards in the acting categories, while Her will have a better chance of getting Best Screenplay.  The Wolf of Wall Street is in the same position Django Unchained was in last year. It is a cool and hip film to nominate for best picture but one that the older members of the branch don't have the stomach to vote for the win. So that leaves American Hustle, Gravity, and American Hustle. Gravity, my personal favorite film of the year, is going to sweep the technical categories. But the lack of a Best Original Screenplay nomination I think is a sign that it won't win here. American Hustle is a fun film. Audiences and critics both love it. If it were any other year, I would pick it to win. But 12 Years a Slave is one of those movies that comes along every once in awhile that is so powerful that I think the members of the academy will probably go ahead and pick it. It doesn't pull any punches and the way Steve McQueen guided the movie is an achievement in of itself. I expect the academy to honor it with it's highest award.

BEST ACTOR

CHRISTIAN BALE - AMERICAN HUSTLE

BRUCE DERN - NEBRASKA

LEONARDO DiCAPRIO  - THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

CHIWETEL EJIOFOR - 12 YEARS A SLAVE

MATTHEW McCONAUGHEY - DALLAS BUYERS CLUB

Tom Hanks not getting nominated here is a stunner. Walking out of Captain Phillips, I thought he was a shoo-in for a acting nod. But DiCaprio and Bale's films became really popular as of late and Hanks had the misfortune of having his movie open all the way back in October. Bruce Dern gives the performance of his career in Nebraska and it is really good to see him nominated here. But I think it is a two man race here between Ejiofor and McConaughey. Ejiofor would win it if I was picking the winner. 12 Years a Slave is very much dependent on us caring for the lead character and Ejiofor more than succeeds in making us see the struggles that his Soloman Northup went through. McConaughey though is having a Tom Hanks-like comeback. To think of where he was a few years ago being stuck in Kate Hudson films to now working on the next Christopher Nolan film is truly remarkable. He too gave one of the best performances of the year. And considering that he lost an insane amount of weight in order to play the part, it pretty much seems to be a given that he will win. Let's just hope he can fit in a Dazed and Confused quote in his acceptance speech somewhere.

BEST ACTRESS

AMY ADAMS - AMERICAN HUSTLE

CATE BLANCHETT - BLUE JASMINE

SANDRA BULLOCK - GRAVITY

JUDI DENCH - PHILOMENA

MERYL STREEP - AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY

I said this to people in August when I saw the film and I am going to say it again: Cate Blanchett is going to win Best Actress. Woody Allen wrote her an excellent character to play in Jeanette "Jasmine" Francis. Blanchett handled the part like a pro and she should be awarded here. Amy Adams could win for American Hustle since she is on the hot streak she continues to be on. Bullock was also good in Gravity but I think the acting branch will probably see that film as more a technical film than an acting one. Judi Dench is well respected but she has not won any awards to suggest a win here. As for Miss Streep, I think she got this nomination by the skin of her teeth. Osage County has not been a hit with critics and reviews from audiences have been mixed. In fact I could have sworn I heard groans in the press room when the academy announced her name. Meryl has three trophies already, time for Cate to get one of her own. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

BARKHAD ABDI - CAPTAIN PHILLIPS

BRADLEY COOPER - AMERICAN HUSTLE

MICHAEL FASSBENDER - 12 YEARS A SLAVE

JONAH HILL - THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

JARED LETO - DALLAS BUYERS CLUB

It is awesome to see Barkhad Abdi get nominated for Captain Phillips. To go toe to toe with Tom Hanks and look like a seasoned pro is a major accomplishment for the first time actor. But he hasn't won any acting awards yet, so the nomination may end up being his award. Bradley Cooper did well in American Hustle but his hair probably is getting more press than his acting did in the film. Jonah Hill continues to impress as a dramatic actor but I just don't see the academy giving him the trophy. Michael Fassbender continues to be one of the best actors around these days. His character was evil and the interactions he had with Ejiofor were some of the best scenes in 12 Years a Slave. But I think Jared Leto is going home with the award. Leto has over the last decade played mostly psychopaths and characters with a dark side. But he showed a surprising amount of heart in Dallas Buyers Club. Him and McConaughey were great together and Leto's transgender character I thought really gave the film a good dose of humor and heart amongst all the talk of AIDS and medical procedures. If he wins, I expect many a mention of his role on the brilliant TV show My So-Called Life to be mentioned on Twitter.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

SALLY HAWKINS - BLUE JASMINE

JENNIFER LAWRENCE - AMERICAN HUSTLE

LUPITA NYONG'O - 12 YEARS A SLAVE

JULIA ROBERTS - AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY

JUNE SQUIBB - NEBRASKA

Great surprise seeing Sally Hawkins getting a nod for Blue Jasmine. She really provided a great counter point to the madness of Blanchett in the film. But she has not been nominated for anything else so far so I don't think she gets the win here. Unlike Streep, Julia Roberts earned her acting nomination for Osage County. But like Streep, the lack of buzz for the film hurt her chances. June Squibb was a hoot to watch in Nebraska. Voters though I think will probably think of the film more for Bruce Dern's role that for Squibb's. Jennifer Lawrence has kicked ass and taken names in 2013. She won Best Actress for Silver Linings Playbook, had a mega hit with Catching Fire, and continued her great acting work in American Hustle. But to be honest, I don't think her work in Hustle is one of her best. Sure she is great and all and I would not be shocked in the least if she wins again. But Lupita Nyong'o was amazing in 12 Years a Slave. She could have overacted or gone over the top with her role but she didn't. It made her character "Patsey" all the more better for it. The academy, in this case, I think will stray from the popular choice of Lawrence and give it to the right choice, which would be Nyong'o.

BEST DIRECTOR

DAVID O'RUSSELL - AMERICAN HUSTLE

 ALFONSO CURON - GRAVITY

ALEXANDER PAYNE - NEBRASKA

STEVE MCQUEEN - 12 YEARS A SLAVE

MARTIN SCORSESE - THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

This category has become a two man race. Martin Scorsese is a great director and will always be one, but The Wolf of Wall Street has just as many haters as it does admirers, so he will not get the win here.  Alexander Payne continues to make great small dramas. Nebraska is a great film but one that will get more support in the acting category than the directing branch, so no luck for Payne here. This is the third time in a row that David O'Russell has been nominated for best director. Any other year I imagine a groundswell of support for O'Russell getting the directing nod, but for the same reasons that Payne has with Nebraska, I think people are probably going to see Hustle as more an acting achievement than a directing one. So that leaves, Steve McQueen and Alfonso Curon. McQueen winning this would not be a surprise at all. He took a story that he could have dumb down and shied away from the harsher more violent parts of Soloman Northup's story but he didn't. Because of this, he made an amazing film and got great performances out of everyone in the cast. But Alfonso Curon did something even more impressive. In a day and age where CGI and special effects have made movies less personal, Curon made a film that was both a character driven story and a special effects treat. Gravity is a film that did not let the special effects take over the story. You felt like you were in space. You were into Sandra Bullock and George Clooney's struggle in trying to not float away into the dead of space. This is an excellent acheivement over all and while McQueen would not be a bad choice for winner in the category, I expect Curon to win here.

Before I go, I wanna give a quick shout out to a fellow friend and blog writer. If you wanna read another take on the Academy Awards, go to kentuckygeekgirl.com and get your fix there. She is also a great writer and has a cool logo to boot!