2015 Academy Awards Preview (or The Opinion of One Guy Who Has Seen Most of the Movies Nominated) Part One

Last week, The Academy Award Nominations were announced and did the controversy fly or what? It has been a long time since we have seen this much grumbling over what was not nominated. In past years, you usually would see chatter like that die down after a week or so, but this year, the snub of films like Selma and The Lego Movie might end up having a real impact on the races this year.

This year's collection of films is very good even with all the grumbling over what was or was not nominated. A lot of films that were deemed sure things early on (Gone Girl, Inherent Vice,) didn't even get a best picture nomination. It seems the Academy this year went for films that favored strong storytelling WITH strong acting. All of the best picture nominees this year seemed to have performances that many people were talking about afterwards. In the case of some movies, like The Imitation Game, the performances is what got people to the movies in the first place.

Whatever turns out of all the controversy, this year's slate of films at least promises to at least give us a few surprises or so. I now give you my take on all the categories in the coming days and who wins the Oscar in each category this year. This will be a series and I will conclude it closer to the actual awards show.


First up, the screenplay races:

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY


American Sniper - Jason Hall 

The Imitation Game - Graham Moore

Inherent Vice - Paul Thomas Anderson

The Theory of Everything - Anthony McCarten 

Whiplash - Damien Chazelle

We start with one of the toughest categories of the night. There really is no clear favorite right out of the gate. Most of these movies come with controversy and baggage of some sort. Let's start with Inherent Vice from the great Paul Thomas Anderson. He probably was the biggest surprise nominee in this category. Popular opinion says that he took the spot that Gillian Flynn was going to have for adapting her own book Gone Girl. Anderson is a very well respected filmmaker but he doesn't have much of a chance of wining this category. The film only went up for one other award (Best Costume) and the few people who saw the film are still trying to figure out what the heck the film was about. American Sniper is a mega hit at the theaters right now. Audiences love the film but other people hate it with a passion it seems. Whether it has to do with how much of the story is fabricated or whether the film is really some sort or right wing propaganda machine, you just don't get the sense that the film hasn't got much momentum here for a win. As for both The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything, both are very highly regarded British films. But both films seem to be highly regarded for other areas but the writing. Both films have great lead performances and both are very technically sound. But Theory has been accused by some for being inert and uninvolved in spots of the story while Imitation has had some questions over whether the film glossed over certain facts of it's real life story. That leaves Whiplash. It's one of the most well received critical hits of the year and the fact that it comes from a short film is a surprise for most people. Since that film's chances of winning best picture do seem slim at best, this and Best Supporting Actor might be where the film gets it's due. 

Should Win and Will Win: 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) - 

Alejandro González Iñárritu,  Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. and Armando Bo

 Boyhood - Richard Linklater

Foxcatcher - E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman 

The Grand Budapest Hotel - Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness

Nightcrawler - Dan Gilroy

Another tough category to pick. All of these films have been very well received by audiences and critics. Two films on this list though have tough chances of winning. Foxcatcher has been nominated in other categories but the lack of a best picture nomination really sinks it's chances here. Same goes for Nightcrawler. It's chances were probably damaged the moment Jake Gyllenhaal failed to get a Best Actor nomination. Boyhood may end up winning Best Picture and a few other awards during the evening. But considering that many people are talking about the movie's directing and how good the acting is and how there never really was much of a set script over the years, one is not getting a strong sense of a win here. So that leaves Birdman and Grand Budapest and this is where it gets hard. Both films are inventive and both show off wonderful storytelling. What makes the difference? In the case of Birdman, the discussion has been on Michael Keaton. Keaton is truly the anchor of the film and the film would really have been lost without him. However, ask anyone why Grand Budapest worked and the answer you would get the most is Wes Anderson. He has been very well regarded filmmaker for years by both audiences and critics. For reasons unknown, the Academy has not given him much in the way of nominations to Anderson over the years. This is the year I think he finally gets some recognition and this is the category where he finally wins an Oscar. While it would not be a shock to see Birdman win, it looks to be a Grand night for Wes Anderson at last. 

Should Win and Will Win: 

That is it for this post. Next time, we will look at the Best Supporting Actor and Actress races. Both of these races look like easy wins for actors in both categories. Or are they? We will look at that next time.

- Hash