2016 Best Educated Guesses on the Academy Award Nominations: Part One

It is that time again!

The Academy Awards are upon us and this year, the field varies very much depending on the category. Some categories, the winners already feel like a lock. In others, it is anyone's guess in how they will turn out.

Once again though, I have seen all the movies nominated for Best Picture and most of the films that are up in various categories.

The next five blog posts, I will examine the various top nominated categories and take a wild, educated guess as to who will win in each of those categories. Last year, I didn't do so well. This year though, I feel better about my chances.

Without further ado, here are my first picks for this year's Academy Awards:

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS


JENNIFER JASON LEIGH -  THE HATEFUL EIGHT

ROONEY MARA -  CAROL

RACHEL McADAMS -  SPOTLIGHT

ALICIA VIKANDER -  THE DANISH GIRL 

KATE WINSLET -  STEVE JOBS 

What started to look like the most wide open race of the night has, in the last couple of weeks, now become a two person race it seems. Alicia Vikander and Kate Winslet seem to be the odds on favorite of winning this category. Vikander has had a phenomenal year. She had a great star making role in Ex Machina as the main android in the film. She then turned in a well received performance in The Man From U.N.C.L.E. Now she ends the year on a high note with The Danish Girl. Many critics praised her acting in the film and she has now started to get rewarded for that. Kate Winslet on the other hand continues to just be one of the best actresses in film today. In Steve Jobs, she was the heart of the film. She had the most scenes with Michael Fassbender and through her character of Joanna Hoffman, we see the real Steve Jobs come out. Every scene she was in was electrifying. However, I have a feeling that the box office failure of the film is going to hurt Winslet (as well as Fassbender, who is nominated in the Best Actor category). As we get closer to the awards show, you start to get the sense that voters are probably going to go with Vikander here for the win. If nothing else it will be the cherry on top of the phenomenal year that Vikander as had and it will solidify her as a top actress to watch out for years to come. 

WINNER:

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

CHRISTIAN BALE -  THE BIG SHORT

TOM HARDY -  THE REVENANT

MARK RUFFALO -  SPOTLIGHT

MARK RYLANCE -  BRIDGE OF SPIES

SYLVESTER STALLONE -  CREED

One gets the sense that of any of the major categories on Oscar night, this is the category that people will be watching the most. The reason: Sylvester Stallone. He is the one person that I think most people will be rooting for that night to win. Creed is a very well loved movie that some pundits have questioned and wondered about why it didn't go up for Best Picture. Stallone is also someone who has been around for years. A win here would be kind of a career achievement award for how great his career has been. Also in all fairness, Stallone is great in Creed. He has taken a part that he created nearly 40 years ago and somehow found a way to bring new life into it. Stallone has always appeared to be a muscle man but to see him be so vulnerable in the film is something that is unexpected and welcomed. However, the Academy has been weird about comeback stories. For all the love that John Travolta (Pulp Fiction) and Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler) got for their comeback roles, the Academy ended up giving the award to other actors. In case Stallone loses, there are a couple of other options here that make sense. Tom Hardy has been amazing this year. Not only did he take over the role of Mad Max in Mad Max: Fury Road to great acclaim, he also got great notices for his work in the little seen Legend. His work in The Revenant is also just as good as he takes on the role of the film's villain, John Fitzgerald. The way he mumbles his lines and how he was able to let us read his eyes for the emotions his character was going through was amazing to watch. Mark Rylance also was great in his very low key role in Bridge of Spies. Problem is, that it is so low key, will the Academy even honor it over the more showy performances here? Same goes for Christian Bale and Mark Ruffalo. Both actors were great in their films, but it is the type of performances that we usually see and expect from them. So unless the Academy feels that Hardy is just that much better, Stallone is going home with the Oscar here. Plus you gotta admit, "Academy Award Winner Sylvester Stallone" has a nice ring to it you know? 

WINNER:

That is it for this post. Up next will be the Screenplay races. 

- Hash