2016 Best Educated Guesses on the Academy Award Nominations: Part Two

This year's group of screenplay nominees represent the most diversity of any of the categories that the Academy has to offer us this year. And in a year where diversity is sorely lacking in all the major nominees, that makes both of these screenplay categories interesting to watch.

Original Screenplay I think has some very fascinating nominations. Three of the films in that category are not nominated for Best Picture. Adapted Screenplay on the other hand is a category where four of the five nominees are listed for Best Picture.

Who will win in their respective categories? Let's take a look.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Bridge of Spies-
    Matt Charman, Joel Coen, and Ethan Coen

 Ex Machina- 
Alex Garland

Inside Out- 
Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, and Ronnie Del Carmen

Spotlight-
Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer 

Straight Outta Compton- 
Johnathan Herman, Andrea Berloff, S. Leigh Savidge, Alan Wenkus

As I mentioned earlier, three of the films are not nominated for Best Picture, so this makes this category very interesting to pick. This first nominee that grabs your attention right away is Straight Outta Compton. It is the film that many, including me, have thought should have been nominated for Best Picture. The temptation here would be to give it a Oscar as a sort of protest to the Academy, kinda like last year when the equally snubbed Selma did not go up for many awards like many people thought it should have. Selma eventually went on to win Best Song. But Compton is not nominated for any other award and all of the writer's on the film are white. So any kind of protest that the award would generate would be kinda moot. Bridge of Spies is a very well received film and it is co-written by Academy favorites Joel and Ethan Coen. But the film feels more like a Spielberg endeavor than it does a Coen Brothers one so I don't see a win here. I also don't see a win for either Ex Machina or Inside Out, which is a shame because they are probably the most well liked films on this list. That leaves Spotlight. The film has been praised for it's accuracy and for how the filmmakers were able to tell a gripping story out of a very sensitive subject. Usually that is the recipe for success and thus I see Spotlight getting a well deserved win here. 

Winner:

Spotlight






BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Big Short- 
Adam McKay and Charles Randolph from "The Big Short" by Michael Lewis

Brooklyn-
Nick Hornby from "Brooklyn" by Colm Toibin 

Carol-
Phyllis Nagy from "The Price of Salt" by Patricia Highsmith

The Martian-
Drew Goddard from "The Martian" by Andy Weir

Room-
Emma Donoghue from her novel "Room"

Another strong category. All of the film's nominated here are all very well liked film's by the critics and audiences. However for Carol, the moment the film failed to go up for Best Picture, it lost any chance it had of winning here. Brooklyn is a very well regarded film but it is more well regarded in other areas of the film than the writing. Specifically, Saoirse Ronan for her acting and the films 1950's period production design. The Martian has the same issue going for it as well. Drew Goddard is one of the best writers in Hollywood right now for his work on Cloverfield and The Cabin in the Woods, but the film has been looked at for more of Ridley Scott's directing than for anything else. Room on the other hand has a couple of things going in it's favor. It was adapted by the books author, Emma Donoghue. She has been praised by critics and by people who have read the book for keeping a lot of the hard to stomach moments intact. But the best film of the bunch, The Big Short, should and will win this category. The book is incredibly dense with financial information and with the terminology of the stock market. But Adam McKay and Charles Randolph do a great job with never letting the audience get confused and with telling a entertaining story of the individuals who saw the stock market collapse of 2008 coming. For that, The Big Short wins big in this category. 

Winner:

The Big Short

Coming this Friday, I will look at the Best Director race. One of the more unpredicatble races of the night. Until then...

- Hash