2016 Best Educated Guesses on the Academy Award Nominations: Part Four

Best Actor and Best Actress.

One of these races is all but locked up. The other one does seemingly look like a done deal as well but there is a chance for a surprise there as well.

Both of these races if anything else speak to how big momentum and campaigning to win your respective award is to the Oscars these days.

So with out further ado, let's look at the races for Best Actress and Best Actor.

BEST ACTRESS


CATE BLANCHETT - CAROL

BRIE LARSON - ROOM

JENNIFER LAWRENCE - JOY 

CHARLOTTE RAMPLING - 45 YEARS

SAOIRSE RONAN - BROOKLYN

The remarkable thing that stands out in this category right of the bat is that the heavyweights in the category really don't have that much of a chance of winning. Cate Blanchett is one of those great actresses who is always up for a nomination but her inclusion here has puzzled many people. Her character in Carol is seen by many as more of a supporting character whereas her co-star Rooney Mara is actually the main character of the story. So I don't see Blanchett going home with the trophy here. 

Same thing goes for Jennifer Lawerence. Working with her favorite director, David O'Russell, Joy had the makings early on of looking like a possible win for Lawrence. But reaction to the film was mixed and she's also the film's only nomination here. Charlotte Rampling has been an industry veteran for over 15 years. Her first part was actually as a dancer in A Hard Day's Night. Respected for many years, Rampling stood a chance early on to come into this race and maybe pick up a sentimental win. But Rampling in the last month screwed up big time. When she was asked about her thoughts on the possibility of actors boycotting the awards show due to lack of diversity, Rampling replied that the whole idea of a boycott was actually "racist to white people." This is a incredibly stupid thing of her or anyone to say. So there is zero chance of her winning here. 

Saoirse Ronan has been a very well respected young actress in the industry for the last decade or so. Ronan has to carry Brooklyn for pretty much the entire film and she succeeds very well. Since most of the film is told through her character's experiences coming to America from Ireland, Ronan's performance is really extraordinary. But the feeling here is that this is Brie Larson's category for lose. Her performance in Room is extraordinary. The early scenes in the shack with her young son where she is just desperately trying to keep her kid happy while also trying to keep herself mentally sane is just heartbreaking to watch. It is the kind of part that the Academy usually loves to reward and this Sunday, Larson should be going home with her first Oscar.

WINNER:

BEST ACTOR

Bryan Cranston - Trumbo 

Matt Damon - The Martian 

Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant 

Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs 

Eddie Redmayne - The Danish Girl 

Folks, this is usually the part where I go and write a long thoughtful analysis about who I think is going to win Best Actor and the wonderful ways they earned their way to the trophy. But let's be honest here, Leonardo DiCaprio is going to win this award no matter what any of us thinks. 

It's over. DiCaprio has absolutely dominated the conversation this awards season. He has played the "I'm due" card very well. I mean, at least The Revenant is a great film to win for. But I just feel bad for Michael Fassbender and Matt Damon. Both of these guys gave career highlight performances this year and basically both of them have been reduced to a footnote in this race. 

For comparison, DiCaprio is kinda riding the same train that Jack Nicholson rode when he won Best Actor in 1976 for One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest. It was also at the time Nicholson's fifth nomination after being nominated for Easy Rider, Five Easy Pieces, The Last Detail, and Chinatown. Many people felt Jack was "due" thus he finally won it for Cuckoo's Nest. DiCaprio is getting that same attention now since he has been a great actor and has been someone who knows how to pick great projects. 

So this Sunday, expect the Academy to give DiCaprio the award. It's just academic at this point. 

WINNER:

- Hash